(ZENIT News / Rome, 02.05.2025).- «It will be a brief Conclave, lasting two or three days,» Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako of Baghdad told journalists before entering one of the General Congregations. He continued: «There is a very fraternal atmosphere and a spirit of responsibility.» He even ventured to acknowledge that he had a very clear idea about whom he would vote for, although he added that he couldn’t say it.
International bookmakers have also converted the Conclave into a working matter. On average, they estimate between 5 and 8 puffs of smoke to reach the target («fumata blanca»). It’s unlikely that fewer than 5 will be needed: 3 or 4 puffs are suggested at 4.50 times the bet, while 1 or 2 black puffs are given at 21. A Conclave with more than 11 puffs before the decisive draw is 11.
But what do the statistics say? From 1850 to 2013, the year in which Pope Francis was elected, the average time taken to elect a Pope was 3 days. The reason? The processes are now clearer, they’re regulated, and . . . the Cardinals want to return to their countries. In the last say, I’ll say this was the duration of the Conclaves:
- 2 days: 1878 Conclave (Election of Leo XIII)
- 4 days: 1903 Conclave (Election of Pius X)
- 4 days: 1914 Conclave (Election of Benedict XV)
- 5 days: 1922 Conclave (Election of Pius XI)
- 2 days: 1939 Conclave (Election of Pius XII)
- 4 days: 1958 Conclave (Election of John XXIII)
- 3 days: 1963 Conclave (Election of Paul VI)
- 2 days: 1978 Conclave (Election of John Paul I)
- 3 days: 1978 Conclave (Election of John Paul II)
- 2 days: 2005 Conclave (Election of Benedict XVI)
- 2 days: 2013 Conclave (Election of Francis)
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